Archive for November, 2010

Manipulating Pot Odds

Monday, November 29th, 2010

Poker CouplesIt is much easier to manipulate the pot odds that others are receiving in no limit or pot limit Texas Hold ‘Em than it is in the limit version of the same game. This is because you can easily make the pot odds so poor for your opponent, that unless they have a monster hand, they should immediately fold. For example, if someone is chasing a fifth flush card on the river, they have a 5.1-1 chance of making their hand. If you realize they are chasing a flush draw, you can instantly make their bet a losing proposition by doubling the size of the pot: a $50 bet into a $50 pot will make your opponents pot odds 2-1 ($100 in the pot with the opponent having to call an additional $50). Since the effective odds they are receiving from the pot are large than the odds of their making the hand, they will lose 5.1 times for every time that they win. Again, this does not guarantee that they will lose every hand. There is always a roughly 16 percent chance that they will win (1 / 6.1 = .163). But the times that you win will greatly outweigh the times that your opponent wins over the long term, thus ensuring a profit over a large enough sample.

The big bet into a big pot can backfire, though. Oftentimes people will employ this strategy as a bluff. If you have no hand, this can be disastrous since you will most certainly lose if you are called. If your opponent suspects that you are bluffing or will bluff, they can set this up to trap you if they have a strong hand. Remember that bluffs work best on small pots since there is less incentive for others to stay in the hand if their investment and return will be minimal.

The semi-bluff is an important distinction. If you have a realistic chance of improving your hand to the winning one, sometimes a large bet can pay off. Be careful that you have a good read on your opponents, though. You most certainly do not want to hit the hand you were hoping for only to lose to a better one.

Pot Odds

Tuesday, November 23rd, 2010

The term “pot odds” refers to the odds you are getting with your calling a hand. For example, if you are involved in a hand where there is $50 in the pot already and it is $10 for you to stay in the hand, your pot odds are 5-1. This is what is called your effective odds. In addition to your effective odds, you will need to know the odds of hitting the hand you are trying to make. If in Texas Hold ‘Em you have a four card flush after the flop and the turn, there are nine outs for you to hit your hand within the remaining 46 cards that you do not know. 46-9 breaks down to roughly 5.1-1 odds for hitting the flush on the river. If the pot odds were 5-1 as in the example above, you should fold this hand assuming there is no other way for you to win the hand since your effective pot odds are paying less than the amount of times you will actually complete your hand. Over the long term, folding such hands will save you money.

What about instances where there are more rounds of betting ahead of you? Effective odds are great, but how do you use them to predict the future? This is where your “implied odds” come into play. Implied odds take into account future rounds of betting and are vital in determining whether or not you should stay in the hand. Let’s go back to the example above. There is $50 in the pot after the turn and it is up to you to call a $10 bet. You are chasing that fifth card for a flush again and you know that you have a 5.1-1 chance of making the hand. If you call the $10 bet, your play is incorrect—for now. If the pot has the promise of growing larger, it might actually be a good idea to play the current hand. If you suspect that your opponent will bet another $10 the next round of wagering, and at least three others will call besides yourself, your implied odds are actually 110-20, meaning that by risking $20 (two rounds of $10 bets), you are standing to win an additional $110. This breaks down to 5.5-1, meaning that your implied odds warrant a call. In other words, one of your nine outs will hit often enough to make you money over the long term.

PokerStars.com The Big Game

Wednesday, November 17th, 2010

PokerStars.net The Big GamePokerStars.com boasts that it is the world’s largest poker site and there is good reason for this. PokerStars offers many promotions, including some live events such as entries to the United States Poker Championship in Atlantic City, the EPT London Charity Event, and even a seat in the Big Game. The Big Game is a live nationally televised cash game that you can qualify to be a “loose cannon” on. The round one qualifiers took place starting in March of this year, and go all the way up to December 20th. There are three rounds for qualification into the main event. If you finish in the top 300 of a round one qualifier, you advance to round two, which is held each Saturday up until the end of the tournament qualifiers. A top 1,000 finish in round two gets you into round three on Sunday, where you need to finish in the top 200. These 200 players will be put into a casting pool, where they must submit a video outlining why they should be featured as a loose cannon on the show. Not only do you need poker skills, then, but charisma and a camera-friendly attitude to win the loose cannon spot on the show. PokerStars will stake you the $100,00 necessary to play on the show, anything you win beyond that is yours to keep. You must however, survive the minimum 150 hands in order to keep your winnings.

If you are not currently a member at PokerStars.com, you can sign up today and earn a 100 percent bonus, doubling the money you put into your poker account with as little as $10 or as much as $600. The choice is up to you and your bankroll requirements. Because PokerStars is such a popular site, you are sure to find a game in which you can make money. And with PokerStars frequent player program, you are sure to be rewarded for the countless hours that you will play on the site. The more you play, the more points you earn. These points can be redeemed for tournament entries, apparel, and electronic equipment.

Chips Change in Value

Thursday, November 11th, 2010

In a tournament setting, your chips change value as the game progresses. This might not make sense at first, but it is true. Let’s use the World Series of Poker as an example. When you first buy in to the tournament for $10,000, the chips you are given are worth $10,000. However, as you advance through the tournament and your chips wax and wane, the monetary value of them fluctuates. If you have $10,000 in chips and you are the second to last player left in the tournament, those chips are now worth almost $1 million since this is the prize money that is won with a second place finish.

The chips that you gain early in a tournament are not worth as much as the chips you lose. Think about this in terms of proportions. If there is $100,000 in prize money available, and there are ten players starting out with $10,000 each, chips start out being 1/10th of the total prize money, holding their true value of $10,000. As people leave the tournament, the chips will change in value. With five people left, $10,000 is now worth only $5,000 in chip value. Because the average amount of chips held by each player is now $20,000, or 1/5th of the total amount up for grabs, your $10,000 is now worth only half of what it once was.

The true value of your chips is related to the prize value that you are immediately capable of earning. If you have only $1 in chips remaining and you are the second to last player in a tournament with a second place payout of $500,000, that one dollar is worth just a shade more than $500,000. This is because of the fact that there is an extremely small chance that you could still win the tournament and take home the bigger prize. Remember the saying “all you need is a chip and a chair”? The implications of this statement are that given enough winning hands in a row, all you need to win a tournament is to be still alive in it. So if someone wanted to buy your seat for some odd reason, in order to get the true value of your chip, you would need to charge a minuscule amount more than half a million.