Archive for December, 2014

Poker and Daily Fantasy League Odds

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

Advanced poker players already have the skills in place to be great at daily fantasy sports. Take the concept of implied odds, for example. Most people who are familiar with poker know what pot odds are, but implied odds go a step further. In the game of Texas Hold ‘em, after the flop hits, there are still two cards to go. If you have a four flush, you have two chances to get it. You know 5 of the 52 cards, so your odds of hitting are 9/47 plus 9/46, or about 1 out of 3 (2:1). Pot odds would say that if you are getting more than 2:1 from the pot (you have contributed less than 33% of the total pot), then it’s a mathematically sound play that will lead to a long term profit.

Here’s the catch. Implied odds take into account future hands of play and your future bets. After the flop, maybe your pot odds are 5:1, and things are looking good for you. You have a 2:1 chance of winning, and you have 5:1 pot odds. You think: “go for it!”

So you do. An offsuit card hits, your odds of winning go down to 3:1 at the turn, and all of a sudden a huge bet comes into play, double the size of the current state of the pot. Everyone folds around to you. What do you do? (more…)